2021 Orlando 2 Fantasy Supercross Tips (11 Facts)
As revealed by Monster Energy’s 2021 AMA Supercross Championship Series, it continues to confuse fantasy supercross players at RMFantasySX.com. Patterns arise and then the results disrupt predictions. It’s fun and frustrating. Let’s see what makes sense for our 2021 Orlando 2 Fantasy Supercross tips. I have some statistical analysis that will surprise you, just like they did on me. That’s a little bit of math and there will be a grade after the race.Ken Roczen
- Ken Roczen has had a season worthy of MotoGP’s Marc Márquez. In six of the seven rounds Roczen either won or landed on the podium. The difficult thing is, he has three wins and three P2s. Had you picked Roczen to win every round, or finished second in every round, you’d have exactly the same points from his accomplishments – 113 points. If you play hunches and get it right, there is a considerable benefit. However, when your instincts are turned off, you lose some points.
- Cooper Webb is clearly the other top 2 pick, but there’s a twist. If you had chosen Webb to finish second in every race this year, you would have drawn 63 points from his results. However, if you had liked him for P1 all seven rounds, you would have scored 67 points. The difference is that Webb has two wins and only one P2. With that in mind, I’ll win with Cooper Webb at O2, with Roczen at P2.
- There have been six different P3 finishers in seven rounds, so no one is a ban on finishing last on the podium.
- Marvin Musquin is the only repeat P3 finisher, but these are also his only top 5 finishes. It’s a feast or famine, although getting those two P3s would have earned you 42 points.
- If you had chosen either Eli Tomac or Adam Cianciarulo for P3 every round, you would have the same results. This is another non-intuitive one. One would think Tomac would be a better P3 pick than Cianciarulo. The numbers are a mistake, however. For me the tiebreaker is that Tomac has more top 5 finishes, so I’m going with Tomac for the O2 P3 selection.
- Choosing between Justin Barcia and Adam Cianciarulo for P4 is a tough one. Cianciarulo is a better choice than Barcia for P4 or P5. As a one-year P4 tip, Cianciarulo is worth 58 points, compared to 48 points for Barcia. For P5 the difference is 43 to 38 in favor of Cianciarulo. So here’s the way to look at it. If you drove with Cianciarulo in P4 and Barcia in P5 all year, you would get 96 points. Swap the two drivers and you will get 91 points. Just like with Roczen and Webb, it’s close. However, the numbers say Cianciarulo in P4 and Barcia in P5 so that’s how I choose.
- You can pick a few longshots for the top 5 if you’re ready to take a chance. Zach Osborne has two top five finishes in the last four races and Aaron Plessinger has won 5-11-6 in the previous three races. Malcolm Stewart and Marvin Musquin were in the top 5 at Indy 3.
- In hindsight, my total before wild cards would have been 338 points if I had gone through the first seven rounds with Webb, Roczen, Tomac, Cianciarulo and Barcia in that order of each race. That’s good enough for the top three percent, and that without wild card hits. Given my attempts to read early tea leaves, I only have 271 points, which puts me in the top 28 percent. That’s okay, but nowhere near my expectations for the preseason. After seven main events, Puplvr is the best RMFantasySX.com player with 450 out of 931 points. That averages just over 64 points per round – roughly the points you would get if you hit P2, P3 and P4 perfectly, excluding other points. We all have a lot of room for improvement.
Zach Osborne Holeshot
- Selecting the wild card – P13 – is the usual challenge. There were six different P13 placements in seven main events. The only repeat P13 driver is Broc Tickle. However, Tickle was on a 14-12-13 run in O1 where he failed to make the main. Bloss is probably the best choice as he has run 13-22-14 for the last three races. Mártin Dávalos and Vince Friese are in this range, although none was as high as P13 all year round. You can throw Justin Brayton (12-22-12-11) and Dean Wilson (P12 last week) into the mix. I will go with Bloss.
- If all of that math was too much for you, here are my Orlando 2 tips:
- Cooper Webb
- Ken Roczen
- Eli Tomac
- Adam Cianciarulo
- Justin Barcia Wild Card P13: Benny Bloss
- To see Orlando 2: Bookmark our 2021 Supercross TV schedule.
Photography from Align Media, Feld Entertainment et al2021 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series ranking (after 7 of 17 rounds)
- Ken Roczen, 161 points (3 wins, 6 podiums, 7 top 5)
- Cooper Webb, 148 (2 W, 4 P, 6 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 132 (1 W, 3 P, 5 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, 118 (1P, 4 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 115 points (1 F, 2 P, 4 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 110 (2P, 2 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 109 (2 T5)
- Zach Osborne, 108 (1P, 2 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, 99 (1 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 97 (1P, 1 T5)
- Justin Brayton, 86 (1P, 1 T5)
- Jason Anderson, 82
- Joey Savatgy, 77 years old
- Broc Tickle, 52
- Dean Wilson, 46
- Martin Davalos, 44
- Vince Friese, 42
- Kyle Chisholm, 39
- Benny Bloss, 36
- Justin Bogle, 29
- Brandon Hartranft, Jan.
- Carlen Gardner, 12th
- Chase Sexton, Jan.
- Alex Ray, 9
- Adam Enticknap, 7
- Shane McElrath, 6
- Cade Clason, 4th
- Justin Starling, 3rd
- Austin Politelli, 3rd
- Fredrik Norén, 2nd